Assessment of Dairy Production Volume in Balkh Province

چکیده

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of dairy production in Afghanistan's key dairy region, Balkh Province, which contributes an estimated 200 million liters (12%) annually to national output. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates surveys of 46 farmers, interviews with dairy factory managers, and secondary data analysis to evaluate production volume, identify constraints, and assess socio-economic impacts. Data were analyzed using SPSS software, applying descriptive statistics and inferential tests including correlation, t-test, ANOVA, multiple regression, and cluster analysis. Results reveal a dual narrative: 50% of farmers report a high level of Production increase (Mean=3.23), indicating growth potential. However, significant systemic challenges severely constrain development. Critical deficits were identified in storage and cooling infrastructure (67.39% reported low access, M=2.22), market linkages (56.52% low, M=2.59), and veterinary service access (54.35% low, M=2.78). A strong positive correlation was found between fodder and veterinary access (r=0.60). Regression analysis identified access to fodder (β=0.280) and veterinary services (β=0.350) as the strongest significant predictors of production increase, explaining 42% of its variance (R²=0.42). The findings underscore that while the dairy sector in Balkh shows positive momentum, its sustainable development is hindered by pervasive infrastructural, technical, and market-oriented bottlenecks. The study concludes that realizing the sector's full potential requires integrated policy and investment interventions focused on cold-chain development, strengthening veterinary and extension services, improving fodder and water management, fostering farmer organizations, and enhancing market connectivity to ensure improved livelihoods for rural communities.